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Dow Jones just loves Tuesdays

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Stock Market Doomsday Scenarios Are Fading Away

bearbull21-150x1501Sy Harding: The gloom and doom theorists swarmed out of the woodwork during the 2008 financial meltdown in reaction to government actions taken to prevent the ‘great recession’ from morphing into the next great depression.

The blame fell on both political parties. The Bush administration began the bailout efforts in March, 2008 and by the time its term ended it had provided $29 billion in loan guarantees to allow JP Morgan Chase to take over collapsing Bear Stearns, the $178 billion ‘Average American Bailout’ stimulus plan, the $300 billion Homeowners Bailout, the $200 billion bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the $25 billion Automakers Bailout, the $150 billion bailout of AIG, and the $700 billion Banks Bailout (TARP).

The actions continued when the Obama administration took over, with a $787 billion stimulus package, an additional $275 billion home-owners stimulus plan, an additional $30 billion in assistance to AIG, the $1 trillion ‘Toxic Asset’ program for banks, and the $22 billion automaker loans in March, 2009.

Oh, the disasters that would surely follow as a result of all that deficit spending.

First it was that not only was there no way the massive bailouts could halt the catastrophic worldwide financial meltdown, but in fact the huge increase in government debt would only accelerate the decline.

The bailouts would also destroy democracy and the free market system and turn the country into a socialist state, with the government being major investors in, and lenders to auto companies and banks for decades to come, perhaps even being forced to nationalize them and run them as government entities like the Postal Service.

The low interest rates and easy money policies could not help but create massive spiraling inflation that would also bring the nation and the world down.

The Dow Jones Industrial Averge (INDEXDJX:.DJI) 50% decline from 14,118 in 2007 to 6,516 in early 2009 was only the beginning. Under the gloom and doom conditions the Dow couldn’t help but plummet much further.

Four years after the ‘great recession’ ended in 2009, and with the stock market back to its pre-crisis 2007 level, with the loans to automakers and banks fully paid back (with interest) and the Federal Reserve making $billions in profits on the assets it had taken onto its balance sheet in the bailouts, the big-picture theorists were still warning that the disaster had only been delayed, that the record government debt load will sink the U.S., impoverishing not only the current generation but the next generation of tax-payers as well.

It made no impression on them to point out that President Reagan had used similar extreme spending and stimulus efforts to successfully pull the economy out of the disaster of the 1970’s, resulting in then record government budget deficits and debt. The doom gloom forecasts then were also that the nation would collapse under the debt load and be bankrupt within a few years. But once the stimulus efforts finally began to work, more people became employed, and the stock market began to rise again, the rapid increase in tax revenues had government budget deficits coming under control in the early 1990s. By the late 1990s the deficits had turned to surpluses, and the record government debt was being paid down with ease.

Is history repeating? So far, one at a time we’ve seen the doom and gloom fears drop by the wayside unfounded. The great recession ended and an economic recovery has been underway since mid-2009. The stock market has fully recovered and gone on to new highs. We’ve seen the loans to automakers and banks fully paid back (with interest), no continuing government support needed, the Federal Reserve making $billions in profits on the assets it had taken onto its balance sheet in the bailouts. The fear of spiraling inflation did not materialize, and so on.

And now it looks like the fear that the record government debt load will be impossible to overcome and could still bring the country down, may also be fading away.

We saw early indications in the way state legislatures have already seen tax revenues increase dramatically as a result of the economic recovery, and create significant reversals of their previous frightening budget struggles, which had forced widespread cuts in public education and social services.

A recent report from the National Conference of State Legislatures says only a few states still face budget difficulties, while a growing number expect to finish 2013 with budget surpluses. The situation is creating new, but welcome, problems in states like Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, North Dakota, Ohio, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia, and several others, where legislators now worry and argue about how to spend the surpluses.

And now it’s beginning to show up in the Federal budget area.

The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office said in its new estimate issued Tuesday that the annual budget deficit will shrink to $642 billion this year, substantially better even than its last estimate just three months ago, of an $845 billion shortfall.

How significant is the now accelerating decline in the deficit since the peak at $1.4 trillion in 2009? That $1.4 trillion deficit in 2009 was 10.1% of GDP. Assuming no further revisions by the CBO, the now projected $642 billion deficit this year would be 4% of GDP.

Not that there isn’t still a massive problem in the record level of the overall federal debt. The significant improvement in the annual budget deficits only means the debt is growing more slowly.

But the trend reversal is clearly in the right direction, following the same track as the reversal from the record debt and deficits in the 1980’s that surprised everyone with how quickly the deficits became surpluses once that anemic economic recovery gained strength.

It does have the last of the 2008-2009 doom and gloom scenarios beginning to also fade away.

This article is brought to you courtesy of Sy Harding From The Street Smart Report.


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NYSE:DIA, NYSE:TZA


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Dow Jones 30 Forecast May 20th, 2013, Technical Analysis

The Dow Jones 30 had a strong showing on Friday as the market bullishness continued. The fact that we managed to break above the 15,300 level decisively of course is a very strong sign, and also the fact that we close of the very highs of the session doesn’t hurt much either. Looking at this, we think of this market will continue to go higher, and that a break of the highs from the Friday session should be considered a signal to start buying again. We also believe that pullbacks will find plenty of support as traders trying to take advantage of this nice uptrend.

 

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Dow Jones finishes the day with a 121 point gain

dow.jpgDow Jones ended the day higher, giving stocks an even bigger boost during this bullish run

NEW YORK (AP) — Encouraging news about the U.S. economy extended the stock market’s rally Friday.

A
gauge of future economic activity rose more than analysts had expected,
as did a measure of consumer confidence, adding to evidence that the
economy is steadily recovering.

Stocks are on track to close
higher for a fourth straight week. Indexes are at record levels after
surging this year on optimism about the economy and record corporate
earnings. The market is also being supported by ongoing stimulus from
the Federal Reserve, which is keeping long-term borrowing costs at
historically low levels.

“This slow but relatively steady growth,
that keeps inflation in check and keeps interest rates low, is actually a
pretty healthy environment for the stock market,” said Liz Ann Sonders,
chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab Co. “Right now we
are very optimistic.”

General Motors rose $1.29, or 4 percent, to
$33.68. The automaker’s stock is trading above the $33 price of its
November, 2010 initial public offering for the first time in two years.

Northrop
Grumman gained $2.71, or 3.4 percent, to $81.77 after the defense
contractor said its board approved the repurchase of another $4 billion
in stock, and that it plans to buy back a quarter of its outstanding
shares by the end of 2015.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose
121 points, or 0.8 percent, to 15,354 as of 3:38 p.m. Eastern Daylight
Time. The index is up 1.6 percent this week and 17 percent for the year.

The
Standard Poor’ 500 index climbed 16 points, or 0.9 percent, to
1,667. The gauge is up 2 percent this week and has gained 16.9 percent
this year.

After some lackluster reports on the economy Thursday,
including slowing manufacturing and an increase in applications for
unemployment benefits, Friday’s reports were a tonic for investors.

The
Conference Board said its index of leading economic indicators rose 0.6
percent last month after a revised decline of 0.2 percent in March. The
index is intended to predict how the economy will be doing in three to
six months.

The University of Michigan’s preliminary survey of
consumer confidence climbed to 83.7. Economists had predicted that the
gauge would climb to 76.8.

The strength of the rally in stocks has
taken many by surprise, leaving investors waiting for a drop in prices
to get into the market, said Jim Anderson, an investment specialist at
JPMorgan. The SP 500 index hasn’t fallen for two consecutive days
for a month.

“Everyone is waiting for a pullback,” Anderson said.
“Every client asks me, ‘When are we getting a pullback?’ With so many
people waiting for it, and pouncing on it when it arrives, it’s over so
quickly.”

As well as giving stocks a lift, the positive economic
reports also pushed government bond yields higher. The yield on the
10-year Treasury rose to 1.95 percent from 1.88 percent Thursday as
investors favored riskier assets.

The yield, which moves inversely
to its prices, has jumped since May 3 after the government reported
that hiring picked up sharply in April. The note started trading that
day at 1.63 percent, its low for the year.

The move to riskier
assets also gave small stocks a lift. The Russell 2000, an index of
smaller companies, rose 1 percent to 995. The index has surged this
month and is performing better than both the Dow and the SP 500 for
the year. It’s up 17.2 percent so far in 2013.

Small stocks are
doing well partly because they are more focused on the U.S., which is
recovering, and don’t rely as much on sales from recession-plagued
Europe, as larger companies do.

Gold fell for a seventh straight
day, dropping $22.20, or 1.6 percent, to $1,364 an ounce. The precious
metal is down almost 20 percent this year and has fallen out of favor as
an alternative investment as the stock market has surged this year.

The
demand for gold as an alternative asset is also being undermined by a
recent surge in the U.S. dollar. The U.S. currency advanced against both
the euro and the yen Friday. The ICE dollar index, which measures the
strength of the U.S. currency against a group of six currencies, is at
its highest in two years.

The price of oil rose 86 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $96.02 a barrel.

The
Nasdaq composite climbed 30 points, or 0.9 percent, to 3,495. The
technology-heavy stock index got a small boost from Facebook, which
climbed 19 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $26.31 on the one-year anniversary
of its initial public offering.

Facebook slumped in the first four
months after its market debut on concern that it wasn’t doing enough to
develop mobile advertising. Despite recovering since then, it’s still
trading below its IPO price of $38.

Among other stocks making big moves;


J.C. Penney fell 75 cents, or 4 percent, to $18.03 after the retailer
reported a loss that was worse than analysts’ already dismal estimates.
The retailer is reeling from the fallout from a failed turnaround plan
orchestrated by its former CEO Ron Johnson, who was ousted last month
after less than a year and a half on the job.

— Autodesk fell
$2.88, or 7.2 percent, to $36.91, after the design software company
posted disappointing first-quarter results and lowered its forecasts for
the year.


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How the Dow Jones industrial average fared Friday

Encouraging news about the U.S. economy pushed stock prices higher on Wall Street Friday. A gauge of future economic activity rose more than analysts had expected, as did a measure of consumer confidence, adding to evidence that the economy is steadily recovering. The Dow Jones industrial average and the Standard Poor’s 500 index ended higher for a fourth straight week.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 121.18 points, or 0.8 percent, to close at 15,354.40.

The Standard Poor’s 500 index gained 15.65, or 1 percent, to 1,666.12.

The Nasdaq composite index rose 33.72 points, or 1 percent, to 3,498.97.

For the week:

The Dow is up 235.91 points, or 1.6 percent.

The SP 500 is up 32.42 points, or 2 percent.

The Nasdaq is up 62.39 points, or 1.8 percent.

For the year:

The Dow is up 2,250.26 points, or 17.2 percent.

The SP 500 is up 239.93 points, or 16.8 percent.

The Nasdaq is up 479.46 points, or 15.9 percent.


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Midday Market Stats: Dow Jones Industrial Average Muscles Higher Despite …

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX:.DJI) is up 29 points, or 0.2%, to 15,243.88, overcoming earlier losses triggered by some lackluster economic data. The Empire State manufacturing index unexpectedly fell to negative 1.43 in May, a notable drop from April’s reading of 3.05. Meanwhile, the Labor Department’s producer price index (PPI) slipped by a seasonally adjusted 0.7% last month — disappointing economists, and notching its largest monthly drop since February 2010. Core wholesale prices rose 0.1%, which also fell short of consensus estimates. Also of note, the Fed revealed that industrial production decreased by a seasonally adjusted 0.5% in April, while capacity utilization edged down to 77.8%. Both figures marked larger-than-anticipated declines. Nevertheless, the blue-chip barometer still managed to touch yet another record intraday high of 15,253.69, while the SP 500 Index (SPX) cruised to an all-time peak of 1,655.66.

Here are a few noteworthy stats at midday:

  1. The equity put/call volume ratio across all 11 options exchanges sits at 0.78, with 4.2 million calls crossing the tape so far today, versus 3.3 million puts.

  2. Among the equities with call-slanted activity is Agilent Technologies Inc. (NYSE:A), which has gained about 4% — and tagged a new multi-year high of $46.49 — since the opening bell, exceeding analysts’ quarterly earnings projections yesterday. Currently, calls account for 70.8% of the security’s intraday option volume. At last check, A was trading at $45.74.

  3. The Nasdaq shows an advance/decline ratio of 1.31, with the number of upward movers outpacing the decliners.

  4. Among the Nasdaq’s major advancers is Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:HALO), which has surged around 7.3% in intraday trading, after analysts at Piper Jaffray initiated coverage of the stock with an “overweight” rating this morning. HALO is presently trading at $7.20.

  5. The CBOE Market Volatility Index (INDEXCBOE:VIX) is 0.2 point, or 1.3%, higher, to hover at 12.93.

  6. The put/call volume ratio on the iPath SP 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSEARCA:VXX) — which is currently docked at 18.26 — checks in at 1.57, with puts outnumbering calls.

View a real-time chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average 2 Minute (INDEXDJX:.DJI).


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