Archive for » May, 2012 «

US stock index futures signal early rebound


PARIS |
Thu May 31, 2012 5:15am EDT

PARIS May 31 (Reuters) – * U.S. stock index futures pointed
to a higher open on Wall Street on Thursday, with the SP 500
indicated up 0.57 percent, the Dow Jones up 0.46
percent and the Nasdaq 100 up 0.41 percent at 0852 GMT.

* Strong demand for safe-haven assets kept German bond
futures near record highs on Thursday, while European shares and
the euro regained some poise though persistent worries over
Spain and its troubled banks are weighing on market sentiment.

* On the macro front, investors awaited the ADP employment
report, a harbinger for Friday’s all-important monthly non-farm
payrolls. Economists in a Reuters survey expect 148,000 jobs
were created in May versus 119,000 new jobs in April.

* Investors will also keep an eye on the preliminary
estimate for first-quarter gross domestic product. Economists
forecast a 1.9 percent annualized pace of growth, compared with
a 2.2 percent rate in the advance Q1 estimate.

* The U.S. Federal Reserve should move to boost weak
economic growth and trim overly high unemployment by pushing
down borrowing costs still further, a top Fed official said on
Wednesday.

* Striking workers at a Caterpillar Inc plant in
Joliet, Illinois, on Wednesday rejected the company’s latest
contract offer, an official with the International Association
of Machinists and Aerospace Workers said.

* Billionaire investor Carl Icahn, who last year failed to
get his nominees elected to the board of Forest Laboratories Inc
, plans to back another slate of directors at the
drugmaker’s next shareholder meeting, according to a regulatory
filing on Wednesday.

* US Airways Group and private equity firm TPG
Capital may team up to bid for American Airlines’
parent, AMR Corp, according to people familiar with
the discussions.

* Costco Wholesale Corp posted a four percent rise
in comparable sales in May, falling short of analysts’ forecasts
as a strong dollar hurt the value of its sales overseas.

* TiVo Inc reported a bigger-than-expected
quarterly loss and forecast another loss for the current quarter
as the maker of digital television recorders fights costly legal
battles to protect its patents.

* U.S. mutual fund investors pulled the most money out of
equity funds since the start of the year and scaled back bond
investments in the latest week as concerns over the euro zone
intensified, data from the Investment Company Institute showed
on Wednesday.

* U.S. stocks tumbled on Wednesday as surging bond yields in
Spain and Italy ratcheted up tensions in financial markets about
Europe’s ability to solve its growing debt crisis.

* The Dow Jones industrial average lost 160.83
points, or 1.28 percent, to 12,419.86 on Wednesday. The SP 500
Index dropped 19.10 points, or 1.43 percent, to 1,313.32.
The Nasdaq Composite fell 33.63 points, or 1.17 percent,
to 2,837.36.


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Why the Dow Tanked Today

It’s like yesterday never even happened. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEX: ^DJI) fell sharply today, erasing yesterday’s gain and then some. For the day, the Dow shed 160 points, roughly a 1.3% drop. Equally dismal, the SP 500 and Nasdaq each declined to the tune of 1.4% and 1.2%, respectively.

In what makes for a depressing change of pace, it was Spain today, not Greece, that worried investors. As news of declining deposits cast doubt on the health of the Spanish banking system, investors grew especially wary of Spanish and Italian debt, sending yields on both countries debt sharply higher. Especially since a Spanish bailout would require resources far beyond those needed to foot Greece’s tab, growing deterioration in the larger, heavily indebted European economies should leave investors sweating bullets. As a result, the market’s “fear gauge,” or the VIX (INDEX: ^VIX) , climbed 14.8% during the trading session today.

Blood on the streets

As you could probably guess, individual stocks took a beating as well today. On the Dow, only Intel closed in positive territory on the day, although it rose only a paltry 0.2%. As should also be expected, cyclical stocks fell the most today. Companies exposed to commodity prices traded firmly downward. Alcoa (NYS: AA) posted the greatest decline among Dow components, falling 3.5%, and United States Steel (NYS: X) plummeted 4.7% as well.

Oil plummeted, too, posting a 3.7% loss on the day. This understandably weighed on major oil stocks. Both Chevron and ExxonMobil each fell 2.6% today, securing them the No. 3 and No. 4 largest drops on the Dow today. Clearly, cyclicals weren’t the place to be today.

In other news, shares of social-networking giant Facebook (NAS: FB) gave up their early gains to close the day 2.3% lower. This comes as investors grow increasingly skeptical of the company’s prospects going forward. The stock, which many investors (myself included) expected to post strong initial gains, now sits around 25% lower than its original asking price.

The best way to play a down market

If today’s news out of Europe was any indication, we could have a longer-than-expected road to recovery ahead of us. And while no investor likes to see his holdings fall in value, a declining market does create opportunity for the contrarian investor, especially for those with a long-term time horizon. A down market can be a great time to load up on companies you love. If you’re a retirement saver looking for potential stocks to buy on a dip, the Fool identified three stocks it thinks have the makings of long-term winners. We detail them in our free research report. Things could get worse before they get better. However, in the often-brutal game of investing, buying great stocks on the cheap and holding them for years is one of the best ways to end up a winner.


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Facebook’s mobile plans matter more than share prices

Facebook would not necessarily have to build its own phone and operating
system from scratch. It could partner with another company to build the
hardware, as Google has done with handsets such as the Nexus One, built by
HTC, and the Nexus S, built by Samsung.

The company could follow the example set by Amazon with the Kindle Fire and
take Google’s Android operating system as its base and then overlay its own
interface so completely that it creates, in effect, a Facebook phone.

Whatever approach it takes, Facebook has a difficult task if it really does
plan to build its own phone. Previously successful brands, such as Nokia and
Blackberry-maker RIM, are struggling and very few manufacturers are selling
handsets profitably.

This would, however, be a way for Facebook to get smartphones to those people
in poorer countries who are joining the service in such numbers. By drawing
data from every aspect of their mobile interactions, Facebook could perhaps
make them more profitable.

Facebook has not said anything beyond a statement it issued last year, which
said: “We’re working across the entire mobile industry; with operators,
hardware manufacturers, OS providers, and application developers.”

The question is whether Facebook needs to go so far as to create its own
mobile phone. Last year, when Apple announced the fifth version of iOS, the
operating system that runs its iPhone, the company embedded Twitter
throughout. Your contacts book adds Twitter names where applicable, the
browser, Safari, can post directly to Twitter and other apps can access your
Twitter account if you choose to let them.

Apple and Facebook have not had the best relationship in recent years but
Apple’s chief executive, Tim
Cook, suggested on Tuesday that the two companies might be on better terms
.

He said: “Facebook has hundreds of millions of customers. So, anyone that has
an iPhone or iPad, we want them to have the best experience with Facebook on
those platforms. So stay tuned.”

That could mean Facebook integration is coming to iOS. The next challenge
would be to achieve similar integration with Android – something that could
prove tricky because both Google and Facebook make their money by selling
ads based on what they know about users.

Nevertheless, that’s a route that looks safer and more likely to succeed than
diving into the handset market.


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Mubarak sons face charges over stock market fraud

CAIRO (Reuters) – The two sons of Egypt‘s ousted President Hosni Mubarak will face charges of stock market manipulation, the public prosecutor said on Wednesday, three days before a court was due to issue a verdict in a separate trial for their role in alleged corruption.

Gamal and Alaa Mubarak are already standing trial with their father in a case in which the former president is facing charges of graft, as well as complicity in the killing of protestors who rose up against him last year. The verdict in that trial is expected on Saturday.

Mubarak’s eldest son, Alaa, is a businessman. His youngest son, Gamal, a former banker, was widely viewed as a being groomed for Egypt’s top job until Mubarak was toppled on February 11, 2011. Both are in their 40s.

Mubarak, his family and his aides and associates were accused by protesters of amassing wealth illegally while leaving swathes of the country in poverty.

Egypt’s public prosecutor said in a statement Alaa, Gamal and seven others, were referred to the criminal court on charges of violating stock market and central bank rules to gain unlawful profits through dealings in shares in Al Watany Bank of Egypt, a listed bank.

All those accused in the case were released on bail and barred from travel, except Gamal and Alaa, who were ordered to remain in detention and had their assets frozen pending the trial.

The public prosecutor’s statement said that others referred to trial alongside Mubarak’s sons included Yasser El Mallawany and Hassan Heikal, board members and joint chief executives officers of Egyptian investment bank EFG-Hermes.

The trial of Mubarak, 84, and his two sons began on August 3. It is the first time that an Arab head of state, ousted in a popular uprising, has appeared for trial in an ordinary court. Tunisia’s ousted president was tried in absentia while Iraq’s toppled Saddam Hussein stood trial in a special court.


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CNBC’S CHECKERBOARD PROGRAMMING FOR THE WEEK OF JUNE 11TH

(ALL TIMES ARE IN ET)

Monday, 6/11/2012:

8:00 PM BIOGRAPHY ON CNBC #11 – RICHARD BRANSON

9:00 PM DANGEROUSLY RICH: BILLIONAIRE SUPER SECURITY (30 Minutes)

9:30 PM DANGEROUS TRADE: EXOTIC ANIMALS (30 Minutes)

10:00 PM AMERICAN GREED 44 – FRAUDSTER OF THE OPERA | FROZEN ASSETS

12:00 AM DANGEROUSLY RICH: BILLIONAIRE SUPER SECURITY (30 Minutes)

12:30 AM DANGEROUS TRADE: EXOTIC ANIMALS (30 Minutes)

1:00 AM AMERICAN GREED 44 – FRAUDSTER OF THE OPERA | FROZEN ASSETS

Tuesday, 6/12/2012:

8:00 PM BIOGRAPHY ON CNBC #1 – RAY KROC

9:00 PM 60 MINUTES ON CNBC #35 – HARD TIMES

10:00 PM AMERICAN GREED 45 – THE SLAUGHTERHOUSE

12:00 AM 60 MINUTES ON CNBC #35 – HARD TIMES

1:00 AM AMERICAN GREED 45 – THE SLAUGHTERHOUSE

Wednesday, 6/13/2012:

8:00 PM THE PIXAR STORY (2 Hours)

10:00 PM AMERICAN GREED 46 – THE ROYAL SCAM: KINGS OF COUNTERFEIT

12:00 AM THE PIXAR STORY (2 Hours)

Thursday, 6/14/2012:

8:00 PM WALT: THE MAN BEHIND THE MYTH (2 Hours)

10:00 PM AMERICAN GREED 47 – THE ART OF THE STEAL | FOLSOM FELON

12:00 AM WALT: THE MAN BEHIND THE MYTH (2 Hours)

Friday, 6/15/2012:

8:00 PM MEXICO’S DRUG WAR

9:00 PM SUPERMARKETS INC: INSIDE A $500 BILLION MONEY MACHINE

10:00 PM AMERICAN GREED 48 – HEDGE FUND IMPOSTER

12:00 AM ULTIMATE FIGHTING: FISTFUL OF DOLLARS

1:00 AM AMERICAN GREED 48 – HEDGE FUND IMPOSTER

About CNBC:

With CNBC in the U.S., CNBC in Asia Pacific, CNBC in Europe, Middle East and Africa, CNBC World and CNBC HD+, CNBC is the recognized world leader in business news providing real-time data, analysis and information to more than 390 million homes worldwide. The network’s 16 live hours a day of business programming in North America (weekdays from 4:00 a.m.- 8:00 p.m.) is produced at CNBC’s global headquarters in Englewood Cliffs, N.J., and includes reports from CNBC News bureaus worldwide. CNBC.com and CNBC Mobile Web (mobile.cnbc.com) offer real-time stock quotes, charts, analysis and on-demand video.

Members of the media can receive more information about CNBC and its programming on the NBC Universal Media Village Web site at http://www.nbcumv.com/mediavillage/networks/cnbc/


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Could Facebook stock slide another 20 percent?

Investors have pummeled shares of Facebook since its initial public offering, citing concern over growth prospects for the largest social-networking service. Shareholders filed lawsuits that said the company and its underwriters overpriced Facebook at $38 a share. The IPO gave Facebook a higher multiple than 99 percent of the Standard Poor’s 500 Index.

“It could fall quite significantly because it was priced at a significant premium,” Sameet Sinha, an analyst at B. Riley Co., said in a telephone interview yesterday. “Such stocks — when they go out of favor — tend to fall before stabilizing.”

Facebook slipped below $30 yesterday for the first time, falling to $28.84 and surpassing its previous low closing of $31, which was set on May 22. In German trading today, the stock fell 2.1 percent to the equivalent of $28.41 as of 10:06 a.m. in Frankfurt.

Facebook, based in Menlo Park, California, may struggle to make money from a user base that’s increasingly accessing the site via handheld devices.

High Valuation

The company said this month that advertising growth isn’t keeping pace with gains in daily users, and in April reported first-quarter profit fell 12 percent as sales growth slowed and marketing costs more than doubled.

Based on a trailing earnings of $974 million, Facebook trades at a price-to-earnings multiple of 81 times. The Nasdaq Internet Index, whose members include Amazon.com Inc., Google Inc., EBay Inc. and Yahoo! Inc., has a ratio of 35.4 times profit in the past year and 23.5 times projected earnings.

Bullish investors are speculating that surging demand for social-media stock, coupled with earnings growth faster than analysts’ estimates, will justify Facebook’s valuation.

“This a company that’s growing and changing rapidly,” Arvind Bhatia, a Dallas-based analyst at Sterne Agee Leach Inc., said in an interview yesterday. He has a buy rating on the stock and a one-year price estimate of $46. “Google looked expensive for a long, long time. That’s what happens with companies that are changing and disrupting industries.”

Cheaper Than LinkedIn?

The pace of Google’s yearly profit growth has averaged 73 percent since its IPO in 2004, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. While the company’s trailing 12-month multiple has slumped more than 70 percent since its 2004 debut, shares of Google have surged 599 percent from its IPO price through yesterday, the data show.

Bhatia’s price target is based on 30 times estimated earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of $3.9 billion in 2014. He said Facebook is cheap relative to companies like LinkedIn Corp., which surged 109 percent in its first day on May 2011 and trades at a valuation more than 5 times higher than the Nasdaq Internet Index’s multiple, based on estimated profit in the next year.

“It’s a botched deal but the company hasn’t really changed,” Bhatia said, referring to Facebook. “Had these guys come out public in that initial price range, it would’ve been considered a big success.”

‘Near-Term Issues’

At the time of its IPO, underwriters led by Morgan Stanley set a price that valued Facebook at 107 times reported earnings in the last 12 months, more than every SP 500 stock except Seattle-based Amazon.com and Equity Residential, a real estate investment trust in Chicago. The valuation made Facebook, co- founded in 2004 by Harvard University student Mark Zuckerberg, the largest technology IPO of all time.

The company and Morgan Stanley have faced criticism for increasing the number of shares to sell by 25 percent to 421.2 million days before the offering and pushing the asking price to $34 to $38 from $28 to $35.

Facebook increased less than 1 percent to $38.23 on May 18 in a day marred by delays, cancellations and mishandled orders. Robert Greifeld, the chief executive officer of New York-based Nasdaq OMX Group Inc., said a “poor design” in software driving IPO auctions caused the mishaps.

The company, while having long-term potential, has been hampered by some investors getting more shares than expected, said Ryan Jacob, chief investment officer at Jacob Asset Management. Also, investors may be concerned about shares that will become available for trading after a so-called lock-up period ends, he said.

“It will find a floor,” he said. “Fundamentally, I think there’s a lot of optimism. But there are these near-term issues that the stock has to get past.”


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Could Facebook stock slide another 20 percent?

Investors have pummeled shares of Facebook since its initial public offering, citing concern over growth prospects for the largest social-networking service. Shareholders filed lawsuits that said the company and its underwriters overpriced Facebook at $38 a share. The IPO gave Facebook a higher multiple than 99 percent of the Standard Poor’s 500 Index.

“It could fall quite significantly because it was priced at a significant premium,” Sameet Sinha, an analyst at B. Riley Co., said in a telephone interview yesterday. “Such stocks — when they go out of favor — tend to fall before stabilizing.”

Facebook slipped below $30 yesterday for the first time, falling to $28.84 and surpassing its previous low closing of $31, which was set on May 22. In German trading today, the stock fell 2.1 percent to the equivalent of $28.41 as of 10:06 a.m. in Frankfurt.

Facebook, based in Menlo Park, California, may struggle to make money from a user base that’s increasingly accessing the site via handheld devices.

High Valuation

The company said this month that advertising growth isn’t keeping pace with gains in daily users, and in April reported first-quarter profit fell 12 percent as sales growth slowed and marketing costs more than doubled.

Based on a trailing earnings of $974 million, Facebook trades at a price-to-earnings multiple of 81 times. The Nasdaq Internet Index, whose members include Amazon.com Inc., Google Inc., EBay Inc. and Yahoo! Inc., has a ratio of 35.4 times profit in the past year and 23.5 times projected earnings.

Bullish investors are speculating that surging demand for social-media stock, coupled with earnings growth faster than analysts’ estimates, will justify Facebook’s valuation.

“This a company that’s growing and changing rapidly,” Arvind Bhatia, a Dallas-based analyst at Sterne Agee Leach Inc., said in an interview yesterday. He has a buy rating on the stock and a one-year price estimate of $46. “Google looked expensive for a long, long time. That’s what happens with companies that are changing and disrupting industries.”

Cheaper Than LinkedIn?

The pace of Google’s yearly profit growth has averaged 73 percent since its IPO in 2004, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. While the company’s trailing 12-month multiple has slumped more than 70 percent since its 2004 debut, shares of Google have surged 599 percent from its IPO price through yesterday, the data show.

Bhatia’s price target is based on 30 times estimated earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of $3.9 billion in 2014. He said Facebook is cheap relative to companies like LinkedIn Corp., which surged 109 percent in its first day on May 2011 and trades at a valuation more than 5 times higher than the Nasdaq Internet Index’s multiple, based on estimated profit in the next year.

“It’s a botched deal but the company hasn’t really changed,” Bhatia said, referring to Facebook. “Had these guys come out public in that initial price range, it would’ve been considered a big success.”

‘Near-Term Issues’

At the time of its IPO, underwriters led by Morgan Stanley set a price that valued Facebook at 107 times reported earnings in the last 12 months, more than every SP 500 stock except Seattle-based Amazon.com and Equity Residential, a real estate investment trust in Chicago. The valuation made Facebook, co- founded in 2004 by Harvard University student Mark Zuckerberg, the largest technology IPO of all time.

The company and Morgan Stanley have faced criticism for increasing the number of shares to sell by 25 percent to 421.2 million days before the offering and pushing the asking price to $34 to $38 from $28 to $35.

Facebook increased less than 1 percent to $38.23 on May 18 in a day marred by delays, cancellations and mishandled orders. Robert Greifeld, the chief executive officer of New York-based Nasdaq OMX Group Inc., said a “poor design” in software driving IPO auctions caused the mishaps.

The company, while having long-term potential, has been hampered by some investors getting more shares than expected, said Ryan Jacob, chief investment officer at Jacob Asset Management. Also, investors may be concerned about shares that will become available for trading after a so-called lock-up period ends, he said.

“It will find a floor,” he said. “Fundamentally, I think there’s a lot of optimism. But there are these near-term issues that the stock has to get past.”


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Facebook’s stock price dives, and California could take hit

Facebook’s stock has nosedived since the social media giant debuted on Wall Street earlier this month, and that’s bad news for California’s budget.

Gov. Jerry Brown was counting on about $1.5 billion in income taxes related to the company’s IPO to help patch the state’s swelling $15.7-billion deficit. But if the stock price remains low, a haul that big becomes unlikely.

The Brown administration pegged the stock at $35 per share — lower than its $38 starting point but significantly higher than the $28.19 per share at the close of trading on Wednesday.

Jason Sisney at the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office, which provides budget advice to lawmakers, said tax revenue from Facebook “could be hundreds of millions of dollars less than has been projected.”

Of course, that assumes the stock price stays at its current level. And even if it does, Sisney said, there are other ways for the state to make up the difference. For example, the sale of Facebook stock would increase a California resident’s tax bill.

The bigger question for the state budget, Sisney said, is how the overall stock market performs. That could sway tax revenue by billions, not millions.

H.D. Palmer, spokesman for Brown’s Department of Finance, said the administration does not plan to redo its revenue forecast based on the lower Facebook share price.

He pointed out that the administration’s $1.5 billion estimate did not include Brown’s plan for higher taxes, which the governor hopes voters approve in November. If Brown’s proposal passes, the state would reap more tax revenue from the Facebook IPO.

Asked if the administration is worried about the stock price, Palmer replied by email: “We’ve kept an eye on it –- but at the same time realizing that a) it’s only been trading for less than two weeks, and b) stock prices will fluctuate — both down as well as up relative to an opening price.”

RELATED:

Getting bearish on Facebook shares

Facebook stock stumbles in big public debut

Facebook a windfall, not a solution, for California

– Chris Megerian in Sacramento
twitter.com/chrismegerian

Photo: Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg and COO Sheryl Sandberg ring the opening bell of the Nasdaq stock market from Facebook headquarters in Menlo Park on May 18. Credit: Zef Nikolla / Facebook handout via Associated Press


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